Building Confidence with Weather Guarantees

At Sensible Weather, our mission is to empower travelers and fans to confidently get out and explore the outdoors by reimbursing them for unexpected weather disruptions. This not only encourages consumers to book with peace of mind but also protects businesses from reduced demand and cancellations. We're building resilience into the hospitality industry, one Weather Guarantee at a time.

From Academic Research to Real-World Impact

As a scientist at Scripps Institution of Oceanography and Berkeley Lab, my research focused on understanding, modeling, and predicting the probabilities of "sensible weather" such as temperature, precipitation, and wind. I led studies such as "The Probability Distribution of Intense Daily Precipitation" (GRL, 2014), "The Effects of Gridding Algorithms on the Statistical Moments and Their Trends of Daily Surface Air Temperature" (Journal of Climate, 2015), and "Probabilistic Tail Dependence of Intense Precipitation on Spatiotemporal Scale in Observations, Reanalyses, and GCMs" (Climate Dynamics, 2015). Let's not forget "Spherical Harmonic Spectral Estimation on Arbitrary Grids" (MWR, 2017) -- a real banger.

Together, these papers have been cited hundreds of times, which is quite a feat for a young scientist. However, I realized their reach was confined to relatively narrow academic circles. After nearly 10 years in the public and private sectors preaching complexity, I finally understood in 2019 that the best ideas are the simplest and most comprehensible. I started Sensible Weather a year later to bring climate analytics and risk management tools to as many individuals as possible.

The World is Our Market

There are 8 billion people in the world who like to go outside every once in a while. These are our target customers. Our goal is to provide them with the confidence to explore the outdoors, regardless of the weather.

Weather Guarantees and Building Resilience

In an era of increasingly unpredictable and severe weather patterns, resilience is more crucial than ever. Our Weather Guarantees help build resilience by providing financial protection and peace of mind for both consumers and businesses. For consumers, it means not having to worry about losing money due to unforeseen weather changes, allowing them to enjoy their plans without stress. For businesses, it mitigates the risk of cancellations and reduced demand, helping them maintain stability and revenue even when the weather doesn't cooperate. This dual approach strengthens the overall resilience of the travel and hospitality industry, ensuring that both sides can adapt and thrive despite the challenges posed by changing weather patterns.

A Weekend Adventure: Reflecting on Nature and Resilience

While our mission at Sensible Weather is rooted in science and technology, it's important to remember the personal experiences that drive our passion. One weekend this spring, I drove over 300 miles from Dillon Beach, CA to Mammoth Lakes, CA with my wife and kids. There were cows everywhere, and the sun shone brightly over endless green pastures.

Our route from the beach to the mountains took us through the salt marshes of North San Francisco Bay. As I drove, I couldn't help but think, "This road is very close to sea level." It wouldn't take much for it to become un-drivable.

Continuing on, we climbed to over 9000 feet to cross the Sierra Crest just south of Lake Tahoe. Crossing over the crest revealed a literal scorched earth, a shocking reminder of the fragile world we live in.

We finally reached Mammoth just before dark. There was still snow on the ground, and Dave's run was fully covered. Thank you, lapse rate, for letting Mammoth stay open until summer.

A Reminder to Keep Exploring

Sometimes, I am in literal awe of the world we live in. While it may be changing in scary and unpredictable ways, perhaps it's just a reminder that we shouldn't be taking it for granted. Our weekend journey also reinforced the importance of resilience, which is, at the core of it all, what we are trying to provide at Sensible Weather. Resilience for consumers and businesses in the face of a changing world.

Keep exploring.